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A schizophrenia relapse has severe consequences for a patient’s health, work, and sometimes even life safety. If an oncoming relapse can be predicted on time, for example by detecting early behavioral changes in patients, then interventions could be provided to prevent the relapse. In this work, we investigated a machine learning based schizophrenia relapse prediction model using mobile sensing data to characterize behavioral features. A patient-independent model providing sequential predictions, closely representing the clinical deployment scenario for relapse prediction, was evaluated. The model uses the mobile sensing data from the recent four weeks to predict an oncoming relapse in the next week. We used the behavioral rhythm features extracted from daily templates of mobile sensing data, self-reported symptoms collected via EMA (Ecological Momentary Assessment), and demographics to compare different classifiers for the relapse prediction. Naive Bayes based model gave the best results with an F2 score of 0.083 when evaluated in a dataset consisting of 63 schizophrenia patients, each monitored for up to a year. The obtained F2 score, though low, is better than the baseline performance of random classification (F2 score of 0.02 ± 0.024). Thus, mobile sensing has predictive value for detecting an oncoming relapse and needs further investigation to improve the current performance. Towards that end, further feature engineering and model personalization based on the behavioral idiosyncrasies of a patient could be helpful. 

Abstract Schizophrenia is a severe and complex psychiatric disorder with heterogeneous and dynamic multi-dimensional symptoms. Behavioral rhythms, such as sleep rhythm, are usually disrupted in people with schizophrenia. As such, behavioral rhythm sensing with smartphones and machine learning can help better understand and predict their symptoms. Our goal is to predict fine-grained symptom changes with interpretable models. We computed rhythm-based features from 61 participants with 6,132 days of data and used multi-task learning to predict their ecological momentary assessment scores for 10 different symptom items. By taking into account both the similarities and differences between different participants and symptoms, our multi-task learning models perform statistically significantly better than the models trained with single-task learning for predicting patients’ individual symptom trajectories, such as feeling depressed, social, and calm and hearing voices. We also found different subtypes for each of the symptoms by applying unsupervised clustering to the feature weights in the models. Taken together, compared to the features used in the previous studies, our rhythm features not only improved models’ prediction accuracy but also provided better interpretability for how patients’ behavioral rhythms and the rhythms of their environments influence their symptom conditions. This will enable both the patients and clinicians to monitor how these factors affect a patient’s condition and how to mitigate the influence of these factors. As such, we envision that our solution allows early detection and early intervention before a patient’s condition starts deteriorating without requiring extra effort from patients and clinicians.